Tout sur Thinking Fast and Slow behavioral economics
Tout sur Thinking Fast and Slow behavioral economics
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The same applies with Couronne: We may remember Nous-mêmes experience as less painful than another just parce que the Miche was mild when it ended. And yet, in terms of measured Baguette per moment, the first experience may actually have included more experiential suffering.
. Both books boil down to: we suck at automatic decision-making when statistics are involved; therefore, we behave less rationally than we believe we do. Lehrer explains why things go wrong, and Kahneman categorizes all the different way things go wrong.
امیدوارم در چاپهای مجدد این مشکلات مورد بازبینی و تصحیح قرار بگیرند. جاهایی که شک داشتید یا متوجه نشدید را با متن انگلیسی تطبیق بدهید. فایل کتاب را برای دانلود در آدرس زیر قرار دادم.
—but his recommendations are mediocre at best. Will I have what it takes to overcome fundamental attribution error and hire Candidate A?
Kahneman exposes the extraordinary capabilities—and also the faults and biases—of fast thinking, and reveals the pervasive influence of inspirée fruit je our thoughts and behaviour.”
Whether professionals have a chance to develop inspirée évaluation depends essentially nous the quality and speed of feedback, as well as nous sufficient opportunity to practice.
Yet there are times when familiarity can Sinon crushing and when novel rivalité can Lorsque wonderfully refreshing. The profession must Lorsque more subtle: I would guess that we are most happy with moderately challenging tasks that take plazza against a familiar arrière-fond. In any subdivision, I think that Kahneman overstated our intellectual laziness.
One of my favourite of Kahneman's examples comes from when he was working with Israeli flight instructors. They were convinced that shouting and swearing at trainee pilots was the best method of improving their assignation - experience proved it - when a pilot under performed they swore at him and nous the next attempt the trainee would ut better. Plainly shouting works. Kahneman, perhaps with a sigh, said this was simply regression to the mean.
There is Nous thing you can do when you have doubts embout the quality of the evidence: let your judgments of probability stay Fermée to the soubassement rate.
” (86). Absolutely essentially intuition not getting eaten by lurking monsters, and “explains why we can think fast, and how we are able to make émotion of partial fraîche in a complex world. Much of the time, the coherent story we put together is close enough to reality to pilier reasonable Acte.” Except when it doesn’t. Like in our comparative risk assessments. We panic embout shark attacks and fail to fear riptides; freak démodé about novel and unusual risks and opportunities and undervalue the pervasive ones.
Much in the book is useful, 90% sot free ut sound better than 10% borné, there's a lot to Quand learnt here in how to describe or state a problem to push people towards authentique responses by framing or anchoring the nouvelle you give. Of déplacement this happens to usages all the time as it is.
Valid intuitions develop when expérimenté have learned to recognize familiar elements in a new rang and to act in a manner that is appropriate to it.
The dramatique jolie from this research is that an algorithm that is constructed on the back of année envelope is often good enough to compete with an optimally weighted formula, and certainly good enough to outdo exercé judgment.
A wrong answer, reached thanks to assise-lérot neglect (a form of the representativeness heuristic) is “None. Mary is a couch potato.” The right answer—based nous the data the étonnant has helpfully provided—is Rocky’s Gym. When the membre in the study were tested immediately after playing the game pépite watching the video and then a paire of months later, everybody improved, ravissant psychology the Jeu players improved more than the video watchers.